Bubble Bursts: Tourism, Toughest Business of 2024

Here's the translation of the provided text into English: Another bubble bursts!

Tourism, which was once held in high regard, has suddenly become the most difficult business to conduct in 2024.

The popular cities standing at the center, not only failed to take off in terms of GDP this year, but also faced a bleak situation: Tianshui, Harbin, and Zibo saw a year-on-year GDP growth of 3.7%-4.5% in the first quarter, all below the national average (5.3%).

The business of most listed scenic area companies is also declining: among the 12 listed scenic area companies that disclosed their semi-annual reports, 8 either saw a decline in profits or are racing towards losses.

Even the airlines have not yet emerged from the quagmire of losses: China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and Hainan Airlines have an average loss of over 1.5 billion yuan.

What's more bizarre is that according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in the first half of 2024, the number of domestic trips reached 2.725 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; the total expenditure of domestic tourists was 27.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, and the overall per capita consumption increased from 963 yuan to 1002 yuan.

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With the number of tourists and consumption on the rise, how could the tourism industry be in such dire straits?

Where did all the money go?

We may no longer be able to view the tourism industry with the logic of the past.

Among the 12 listed scenic area companies that disclosed their semi-annual reports, there is no worst, only worse.

Some saw a decline in profits: Lijiang Tourism's net profit fell by 7.22% year-on-year, Xiyu Tourism fell by 4.38%, and Dalian Sun Asia fell by 21.24%-47.49%.

Some turned from profit to loss: Tibet Tourism suffered a net loss of 2.6 million yuan, a decline of 187% year-on-year, Qujiang Cultural Tourism suffered a net loss of 150 million to 180 million yuan, a decline of 1548% year-on-year.

Zhangjiajie even expanded its losses: net loss of 58 million to 63 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 41 million yuan in the same period last year.

What?

Isn't Zhangjiajie already popular in South Korea, how could it be losing so much?

In fact, popular natural attractions like Tianmen Mountain and Wulingyuan do not belong to this company; the company mainly provides supporting facilities and attractions.

The reason for such a severe loss is due to its "Dayong Ancient City" project, which only had more than 2,000 ticket buyers in the first half of the year, almost deserted.

This so-called "food, accommodation, travel, shopping, and entertainment" complex, which was planned to be built at a cost of 2 billion yuan, was originally intended to retain tourists and encourage them to spend more, modeled after Hangzhou's Songcheng.

Not only did it demolish a large number of "ancient buildings," but it also launched performances such as "Encounter Dayong" and "Fly Over Zhangjiajie," but like other artificial ancient cities, it is basically a copy of successful cases.

The result of being too uniform can only be to be avoided by tourists like other artificial ancient cities.

Some netizens posted avoidance threads, complaining about Dayong Ancient City: "This place is neither modern nor ancient" "Neither locals nor outsiders are willing to come."

Zhangjiajie belongs to the old problems of traditional scenic areas, which cannot function without natural resources, and Qujiang Cultural Tourism is even more surprising.

It is important to note that Qujiang Cultural Tourism is also considered a top player among the top players, with its major IP "Datang Never Sleeps City" constantly playing new tricks, from the toppling girl to "Shengtang Secret Box" and "Chang'an Twelve Hours," which has become popular across the country again and again.

Who would have thought that such an hardworking Qujiang Cultural Tourism has been losing money from 2020 to 2024!

"Datang Never Sleeps City" had a net profit of only 235,300 yuan in the first half of this year, equivalent to earning 1,307 yuan per day.

In fact, it is not surprising that Datang Never Sleeps City, as a large artificial attraction, has high costs in daily operations and promotion, but here the tickets and performances are all free, and ordinary tourists can just walk around.

In the end, they only earn traffic but do not earn any real money.

Compared with Zhangjiajie, Qujiang Cultural Tourism in Xi'an is considered to be more successful in the transformation of local cultural tourism, but it still cannot turn the corner without ticket and performance economy.

Moreover, Qujiang Cultural Tourism not only does not make money, but also has a large amount of bad debts.

In the first half of the year, it provided for nearly 200 million yuan of bad debts, most of which came from Xi'an Qujiang New District Enterprise Asset Management Center, Xi'an Qujiang Daming Palace Heritage Protection and Transformation Office, Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Industry Development Center, with a cumulative bad debt of more than 500 million yuan.

These are all state-owned enterprises under the same control, which not only cannot help but can only pass the buck to each other, and ultimately fall into the situation of "three monks have no water to drink."

What is the next step after owing money?

It can only be to sell assets to repay debts.

In fact, Qujiang Cultural Tourism has already started to sell its assets to save itself.

Just in the past two months, Qujiang Cultural Tourism has transferred the equity of two subsidiaries in succession: Xi'an Qujiang Tangyu Investment Co., Ltd. and Daming Palace National Heritage Park Management Co., Ltd., the latter even 100% equity.

As an old cultural tourism enterprise, the core business of Qujiang Cultural Tourism is scenic spot operation and hotel assets, but in a short period of time, it has successively sold the equity of two major core assets, indicating that the water is really about to submerge the neck.

If selling assets cannot be enough, it will be the fate of Mengjin Cultural Tourism in Henan: in February this year, Mengjin Cultural Tourism was crushed by a debt of 100 million yuan and went bankrupt, becoming the first local cultural tourism group to go bankrupt.

Mengjin Cultural Tourism is a small town built at a cost of nearly 90 million yuan, but did not fully consider revenue, no tickets, no rent return, unable to cover high costs, and was finally abandoned by the major shareholder Luoyang Tourism Development Group due to serious debt.

The question is, tourism is so hot, the money in the pockets of tourists seems to have been spent, where did it all flow to?

On the one hand, it falls into the hands of online travel platforms: especially Ctrip, with a net profit of 3.9 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 501%, and a net profit margin of 30.47%.

Other online travel platforms also made a lot of money: Tongcheng had a net profit of 660 million yuan in the second quarter, Tuniu Tourism had a net profit of 43 million yuan in the second quarter, compared to a net profit of 220,000 yuan in the same period last year, Meituan's second quarter to store, hotel and tourism business revenue grew strongly by 51%.

Their success is exactly a confirmation of the "shovel effect": because the competition is too fierce, gold miners do not make money, but those who sell shovels to gold miners make a lot of money.

After all, "gold mining" itself is over-supplied and does not make much money.

According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, from 2019 to 2023, the number of A-level scenic spots increased by three thousand, and the average income decreased by nearly 40%.

The number of travel agencies increased by nearly 20,000, and the average annual profit dropped to 66,500 yuan, with an average monthly profit of 5,538 yuan per travel agency.

The transportation and accommodation industry related to the tourism industry also appears to be over-supplied.

In terms of domestic routes, from January to May this year, the total demand of the six major airlines increased by 10.7% compared to 2019, but the total supply increased by 16.9%.

In terms of the accommodation industry, there were 510,000 more homestays in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, setting a new high.

In the context of the continuous release of the number of tourists, it is the middlemen who connect transportation, accommodation, and scenic spots that have the opportunity to take advantage.

On the other hand, the money also flows to the scenic spots that really grasp the tourists' sense of experience, Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Cultural Tourism, and Disney's performance are very brilliant.

Changbai Mountain's net profit is between 20 million and 23 million yuan, an increase of 72% year-on-year, Jiuhua Tourism's net profit is 114 million yuan, an increase of 2.65% compared to the same period last year, Disney's net profit is about 1.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 49.41% year-on-year, only counting the mainland's Shanghai Disney, last year's passenger flow also exceeded 13 million, setting a new record.

Changbai Mountain's popularity is attributed to the enthusiasm of southern small potatoes for ice and snow tourism.

According to Tuniu data, in the top ten ice and snow tourism hot source areas in 2023, the order volume of southern sources accounted for nearly 70%.

As the "highest pole" of the Northeast ice and snow tourism belt, Changbai Mountain not only has more peculiar ice and snow landscapes, but also has undergone more thorough reconstruction.

In addition to breaking the history of winter closure through measures such as moving the mountain gate down and adding online car rides, it has also created immersive business products such as the Cloud Top Market and Snow Fluff Camping Ground to attract tourists.

Jiuhua Tourism benefits from the popularity of temple tourism and metaphysics.

Under the pressure of reality, many people choose to burn incense while working and studying.

According to Ctrip data, since 2023, the order volume of temple-related scenic spot tickets has increased by 310% year-on-year.

Jiuhua Mountain is precisely the Buddhist famous mountain with the most temples, the most monks, and the most real-life bodhisattvas in the country, known as "the most prosperous incense in the world," and naturally becomes a must-visit place for temple card punching.

Although Emei Mountain's profit has declined, it still made a lot of money, with a net profit of 133 million yuan in the first half of the year, also taking advantage of temple tourism.

Disney is even less surprising, not only has a strong film and animation IP, but also has the ability to make tourists unable to stop dreaming: in Disney's park, you can't see any buildings other than the theme landscape, and every landscape detail pursues a fit with the animation setting, and different characters in the park also have their own exclusive signatures, etc...

It can be seen that whether it is ice and snow tourism, temple tourism, or fairy tale tourism, these scenic spots that make money are inseparable from a core element: fully improving the tourists' sense of immersion and experience, giving them enough emotional value.

As the money in tourists' pockets turns to flow, the tourism industry has entered the 2.0 era.

In the 1.0 era dominated by sightseeing tourism, tourism is a "Moutai business": as long as the tourism resources are scarce enough, the three-piece set of tickets + cable cars + performances can win directly, and sometimes the performances that cost a lot of manpower and effort can be omitted.

Just like the Five Great Mountains, as long as you have been to Chinese class and recited "Five Great Mountains return to see no mountains," these mountains are a must-visit place for tourism.

At this time, these state-owned cultural tourism has become an important tax channel for local finances.

The listed company Emei Mountain A has also disclosed that in addition to the ticket income to be handed over to the management committee, the "scenic spot new rural construction fund" also takes away a few percentage points.

But in the 2.0 era, the sense of experience defeats scarcity and becomes the key to winning tourism.

The popular Citywalk for a whole year can make a street, a shop, or even a vegetable market a scenic spot, because they can reflect the most original authentic flavor and local customs of a city.Concerts and music festivals can fully unleash people's passion, prompting them to travel to a city for a performance or an idol.

According to data from the China Performance Industry Association, the average cross-city attendance rate exceeded 60% in 2023.

This has also driven traditional tourist attractions to create a more abundant visitor experience, further competing in services, features, and prices.

Otherwise, they risk the same fate as the traditional tourist spots mentioned earlier, potentially losing everything.

However, in the era of experience, there is no standard answer for tourist attractions to stand out; it all depends on whether they can touch the hearts of visitors.

In this trend, it is foreseeable that as local state-owned assets, a considerable number of traditional tourist attractions that cannot keep up with the times will head towards a path of no return, such as bankruptcy, just like Qujiang Cultural Tourism and Mengjin Cultural Tourism.

The first casualties might be those generic and experience-lacking artificial ancient cities like Dayong Ancient City.

They not only cannot bear the burden of revenue generation for local governments but also hold back local development, making them the first targets.

This is not an exaggeration.

Provincial and municipal documents from Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu have mentioned the phrase "smashing pots and selling iron."

Bishan District in Chongqing even established a special task force for "smashing pots and selling iron," and the finance departments of Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hunan have also expressed the need to revitalize state-owned assets and resources.

The main approach of "smashing pots and selling iron" is to rely on local state-owned enterprises and urban investment platforms to dispose of or actively revitalize existing assets, many of which are traditional tourist attractions.

However, in the transition from 1.0 to 2.0, this may also be a great cultural and tourism gold rush.

Only by sifting out the useless sand can the real gold shine.